Seasonality and Occupancy in Banderas Bay Vacation Rentals

INVESTMENT & VACATION-RENTAL INTELLIGENCE

By Will Hutt, Real Estate Agent | 9 min read

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What does Puerto Vallarta rental occupancy look like across the year?

Puerto Vallarta rental occupancy follows a recognizable annual rhythm: strongest from late fall through spring, with peaks around the holidays and Semana Santa, softer through the summer and early fall hurricane season, and a widening set of shoulder months in between. The right way to model it is by season and by area, not with one flat annual number.

This article is a framework, not a forecast. The AirDNA figures below describe the whole market over a stated period, and any figure used for a specific unit should come from current data for that unit, because results vary by property, building, and year. For that data, look to sources such as AirDNA market reports and local tourism authority publications, and always note the period they cover.

In one sentence: vacation rental income on Banderas Bay is a seasonal curve, and a sound investment model prices the whole curve rather than only its best months.

How does demand move through the year?

High season: late fall through spring

Demand is typically strongest from roughly November through April, when visitors from the United States and Canada look for warm, dry weather. Within that window, the Christmas and New Year period and Semana Santa (Holy Week) tend to be the tightest weeks, with minimum stays and premium pricing common. Many owners find that a handful of peak weeks carry a disproportionate share of annual income.

Shoulder months

The edges of high season, roughly the weeks before and after it, behave differently each year. Holiday timing, school calendars, flight capacity, and events all shift them. Shoulder months reward flexible pricing and flexible stay lengths rather than fixed rules.

Summer and hurricane season

Summer brings heat, humidity, and rain, and the Pacific hurricane season runs through the fall. Demand is generally softer and booking windows are shorter, though domestic Mexican travel and family vacation periods can lift particular weeks. Plan for lower rates, more vacancy, and the need for storm preparedness and maintenance during these months.

Where to find reliable numbers

Occupancy and average daily rate data are published by AirDNA, and visitor and hotel statistics are reported by Mexican tourism authorities such as SECTUR and the Jalisco and Nayarit state tourism offices. When you cite any figure in a pro forma, record the source and the period it covers, and prefer the most recent full year.

What does AirDNA data show for Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas?

AirDNA, a short-term rental data provider, reports that over the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026 the Puerto Vallarta market averaged 57% occupancy at an average daily rate of $177.72, and the Bahía de Banderas market averaged 49% occupancy at $380.01. Both figures are market-wide averages in U.S. dollars across all submarkets and all property types.

Annual snapshot

AirDNA's Puerto Vallarta market showed 5,955 active listings, down 11.6% from the prior year, with occupancy down 4.0% and average daily rate up 0.2%. The Bahía de Banderas market showed 3,846 active listings, down 2.5%, with occupancy down 2.5% and average daily rate down 4.5%. A shrinking supply of listings alongside softer occupancy is a reminder to model each year separately instead of assuming growth.

Month by month

The table below rounds the monthly occupancy and Puerto Vallarta rate lines from AirDNA's charts to the nearest five, so treat each value as approximate.

How to read these numbers

The curve confirms the framework in this article: strong from November through March, a sharp step down in April, and a soft stretch from May through September with a small lift in July. Puerto Vallarta rates followed the same shape, rising from about $135 in October to roughly $200 in December and easing to about $130 by September.

These are market averages, not a forecast for any single unit. Occupancy and rates vary by building, bedroom count, amenities, and management, and the Bahía de Banderas rate is lifted by larger and higher-priced properties in the mix. Use them as a reality check for your seasonal windows, then build the model from comparable listings in your specific building or neighborhood.

Source: AirDNA, Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas markets, all submarkets, trailing twelve months October 2025 to September 2026, accessed October 14, 2026. Monthly values are read from AirDNA charts and rounded.

Does low season still exist?

It exists, but it is narrower and less severe than it used to be. We covered this shift in detail in our article on why the low season no longer exists in Puerto Vallarta, and the underwriting lesson is balanced: do not assume a dead summer, and do not assume a full calendar either.

Longer travel seasons, remote work, expanded flight service, and year-round events have lifted demand in months that were once quiet. The practical effect is that the gap between peak and soft months is smaller than older rules of thumb suggest. A conservative model keeps a clear soft period in the numbers and treats any strength there as a bonus.

Quotable summary: the low season in Puerto Vallarta has shrunk, not vanished, so underwrite a softer summer and let the data prove you wrong.

If you want to see how a specific property would behave across these windows, you can contact Coldwell Banker La Costa and we will point you to the right data.

How does seasonality differ by area?

Seasonality is not uniform across Banderas Bay. The same calendar produces different curves depending on who is traveling to each area and why. The descriptions below are qualitative, and the actual numbers for any unit should come from comparable listings in the same building or neighborhood.

Puerto Vallarta

• Zona Romántica: walkable, restaurant-dense, and popular year-round, with strong winter demand and a steadier shoulder period than most areas. Events and nightlife support bookings outside peak weeks.
• Marina Vallarta: a resort-style area near the marina, golf, and the airport. It draws a mix of leisure and longer stays, with seasonality that tracks the winter peak closely.
• Hotel Zone: oriented toward beachfront condominiums and resort-style amenities, with demand shaped by both vacation rentals and the neighboring hotel market.

Riviera Nayarit

• Nuevo Vallarta: resort-style communities with larger condominium buildings and amenities, often favored for longer stays in winter and group trips at other times.
• Bucerías: a village feel on the north shore, with beach access and a growing mix of visitors and long-stay guests.
• Punta de Mita: a more private, higher-end resort setting, where peak weeks can be especially pronounced and the off-peak can be quieter.
• Sayulita: a surf and boutique town with strong winter and holiday demand and its own event-driven peaks.

Because buildings within one area also differ in amenities, views, and walkability, treat these as starting hypotheses and verify them against recent comparable bookings.

How do you build a conservative seasonal model?

A conservative seasonal model separates the year into windows, assigns each its own occupancy and rate assumptions, and then subtracts the real costs. The goal is not the most optimistic income, but the income you can defend if the year runs softer than expected.

Step 1: Divide the year into windows

Use the windows in the table above: peak holidays, core high season, shoulder months, and summer. Give each its own night count based on the real calendar, including how many weeks Semana Santa and the holidays occupy that year.

Step 2: Set occupancy and rate per window

For each window, take occupancy and average daily rate from comparable listings in the same area and building type, drawn from AirDNA or a similar source, and then apply a haircut. Weight your conservative case toward the soft months, and avoid carrying peak-week performance across the whole season.

Step 3: Subtract the full cost stack

Include management fees, cleaning (often passed through to guests), utilities, internet, maintenance, supplies, furnishings replacement, HOA or condominium fees, taxes, insurance, and platform fees. Add a vacancy and repair reserve sized to the summer period.

Step 4: Run three cases

Build a conservative, base, and optimistic case. Make the investment decision on whether the conservative case still works for you. For a deeper look at the structure of income, see our comparison of short-term vs long-term rental strategy in Puerto Vallarta and our guide to rental yield for a Puerto Vallarta condo.

For buyers who want this done with real market data, Coldwell Banker La Costa offers a Vacation-Rental Investment Analysis service, with AirDNA-backed ROI and occupancy projections and vetted property-management referrals.

What role do pricing, stay rules, and management play?

Dynamic pricing

Dynamic pricing adjusts nightly rates to demand, lead time, and local events. On Banderas Bay it matters most in shoulder months and around moving holidays like Semana Santa, where a fixed rate leaves money on the table or leaves nights empty. Pricing tools and an attentive manager can both do the job, but someone must own it weekly.

Length-of-stay rules

Minimum-stay rules protect peak weeks from short bookings that block longer, higher-value ones, while shorter minimums and gap-night discounts help fill orphan nights in the shoulder months. Monthly and extended stays can be a useful way to smooth the soft summer period, with pricing that reflects lower turnover costs.

Property management

Management affects occupancy through response time, calendar and pricing discipline, guest reviews, and maintenance. In a seasonal market, a manager who also protects the property during hurricane season is part of the return. Read our overview of what to expect from property management in Puerto Vallarta, and consider how a well-prepared unit performs, as covered in furnishing and staging a vacation rental in Puerto Vallarta.

How do local rules affect the model?

Short-term rental rules affect whether, and how, a unit can be rented, and they can change. Condominium regulations, local registration or tax obligations, and municipal requirements in Jalisco and Nayarit can all affect the plan. Read our overview of Airbnb and short-term rental regulations in Jalisco and Nayarit before you rely on any income projection.

Also check the building's own rules, since some condominium regimes restrict short stays regardless of local law. This is general information, not legal or tax advice; confirm with a Mexican notario público and a qualified attorney or tax advisor. If your timing is also part of the decision, our article on the best time to visit and buy in Puerto Vallarta may help.

What should you check before underwriting?

FAQ

What are the best months to rent in Puerto Vallarta?

Demand is typically strongest from late fall through spring, with the holidays and Semana Santa among the tightest weeks. Exact dates vary each year, so check the current calendar and recent bookings for your area.

Is there still a low season in Puerto Vallarta?

Yes, but it is shorter and milder than older rules of thumb suggest. Summer and the hurricane season are generally the softest period, so a conservative model should still carry lower occupancy and rates there.

How should I estimate occupancy for a Puerto Vallarta rental?

Split the year into seasonal windows and take occupancy and rate for each from comparable listings, using a source such as AirDNA and naming the period. Then apply a haircut and test a conservative case before relying on the result.

Does seasonality differ between Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit?

Yes. Areas such as Zona Romántica, Marina Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Bucerías, Punta de Mita, and Sayulita draw different travelers and show different peaks and soft periods. Verify each against comparable units in the same building or neighborhood.

Do short-term rental rules change the income I can expect?

They can. Building rules, local registration, and tax obligations affect whether and how a unit can be rented. This is general information, not legal or tax advice, so confirm with a Mexican notario público and a qualified attorney or tax advisor.