MARKET & INVESTMENT
Reading the Market Right Now
Every few months I get the same question from clients on both sides of a transaction: is now a good time? The honest answer, backed by the numbers we track daily, is that Banderas Bay is offering real opportunity right now, just not the same opportunity for everyone.
Deeper inventory, slower conversion, and continued price appreciation, a rare combination that favors informed buyers and prepared sellers alike.
What the September Numbers Show
Active condo inventory is up 24 percent year over year, with 3,255 listings on the market compared to 2,623 a year ago. That additional supply has pushed the absorption rate to 34.88, and days on market have climbed nearly 5 percent this month and 16 to 25 percent year to date. At the same time, average and median sale prices continue to rise, up 10.21 percent and 6.23 percent respectively. Read together, these numbers describe a market that is deeper, slower to convert, and still appreciating.
| Metric | Current Reading | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Active condo listings | 3,255 | Up 24% (vs. 2,623 a year ago) |
| Absorption rate | 34.88 | Rising as inventory grows |
| Days on market | Up ~5% this month | Up 16% to 25% year to date |
| Average sale price | — | Up 10.21% |
| Median sale price | — | Up 6.23% |
| Pending sales | — | Up 36% year to date |
Source: Coldwell Banker La Costa Realty market data, compiled September 2026.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, this is the most negotiating leverage we have seen in years. With inventory this abundant, especially above $700,000, sellers who have been holding firm on price are growing more motivated. Properties with established rental performance are drawing strong investor interest, and the $400,000 to $700,000 range is moving with real velocity for buyers who come prepared with financing and a clear offer.
Punta de Mita and Conchas Chinas, two of the Bay's strongest luxury corridors, are seeing the same dynamic play out at a higher price point: deeper inventory, and more room to negotiate on the right property. If you have been waiting for room to negotiate, priced on data rather than a wish, this is that window.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, the opportunity looks different but is just as real. The high season we are entering typically brings a surge in inquiries and showings, and pending sales are already up 36 percent year to date. The properties converting quickly share two traits: strategic pricing based on live market data, not last year's comps, and professional presentation, from photography to staging to listing copy. Overpriced, underprepared listings are the ones sitting, and in a market with this much competition, that gap is only widening.
The through line for both sides is the same: this is not a market to read by instinct. It is one to read by the numbers, and then to act with confidence once you have them.
Whether you are evaluating the right offer on a listing, timing a sale to the season ahead, or deciding whether a property's rental income supports its price, the data points to a clear answer more often than not. That is the work our team does every day, and it is the numbers behind the view that make paradise a decision you can prove.
Key Takeaways
- Buyers have real leverage right now. Inventory is up 24 percent year over year, and sellers above $700,000 are increasingly open to negotiation.
- Sellers who price on current data and present professionally are converting fast, especially in the $400,000 to $700,000 range, while overpriced listings sit longer.
- Prices are still climbing even as inventory grows, up 10.21 percent on average and 6.23 percent on median, so the window to act on either side of the table will not stay this wide open indefinitely.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy real estate in Puerto Vallarta?
For buyers, current conditions favor negotiation. Active condo inventory is up 24 percent year over year to 3,255 listings, giving buyers more selection and more leverage, especially above $700,000, where sellers are growing more motivated to negotiate on price.
Is now a good time to sell in Puerto Vallarta or Riviera Nayarit?
Yes, for sellers who price accurately and present professionally. High season is bringing a surge in inquiries, and pending sales are already up 36 percent year to date. Listings priced on current data and marketed well are converting quickly, while overpriced or underprepared listings are sitting longer.
What is the absorption rate in the Puerto Vallarta real estate market right now?
The current absorption rate is 34.88, reflecting the pace at which active inventory would sell at the current sales rate. As supply has grown 24 percent year over year, days on market have also climbed, up roughly 5 percent this month and 16 to 25 percent year to date.
Which price ranges are moving fastest in Banderas Bay?
The $400,000 to $700,000 range is moving with real velocity for buyers who arrive prepared with financing and a clear offer. Properties with established rental performance are also drawing strong investor interest across price points.
Are luxury areas like Punta de Mita and Conchas Chinas also seeing more negotiating room?
Yes. Both corridors are seeing the same dynamic as the broader market at a higher price point: deeper inventory and more room to negotiate on the right property.
Want to know what the current data means for your specific property or search?
Talk to Our Team Browse Puerto Vallarta ListingsBrock Squire, Broker | Coldwell Banker La Costa Realty | newsletter@cblacosta.com | +52 322 223 0055. Coldwell Banker La Costa Realty fully supports the principles of the Equal Opportunity Act and the Fair Housing Act. Each office is independently owned and operated. Agents are AMPI-certified. ©2026 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. All Rights Reserved. Coldwell Banker and the Coldwell Banker logo are registered trademarks of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.